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American Journal Of Agriculture And Horticulture Innovations

Peer Reviewed | Open Access | E-ISSN: 2771-2559
Published Article

Statistical Analysis And Forecasting Of The Dynamics Of Harvested Grapes In The Republic Of Uzbekistan

Statistical Analysis And Forecasting Of The Dynamics Of Harvested Grapes In The Republic Of Uzbekistan

Authors

  • Faiziev Jamoliddin Nasirovich
    Head of the Department of “Agrotechnology and Collection of Fruit Crops” at the Scientific Research Institute of Horticulture, Viticulture, and Winemaking named after Academician M. Mirzaev, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Professor, Uzbekistan
  • Faiziev Akhtam Asraevich
    Department of Information Technologies and Exact Sciences, Tashkent Institute of Economics and Pedagogy, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor, Uzbekistan
  • Sirojiddin Boytemirovich Boytemirov
    Scientific Research Institute of Horticulture, Viticulture, and Winemaking named after Academician M. Mirzaev, Junior Researcher, Uzbekistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37547/ajahi/Volume05Issue10-03

Keywords:

Discrete grape time series volume

Abstract

Observations of phenomena whose characteristics change over time generate an ordered sequence known as a time series. In this research, a statistical time series test was applied to examine the statistical regularity of the average yearly volume (y_t) ̅- of harvested grapes in the Republic of Uzbekistan, based on data from the Central Statistical Office of Uzbekistan for the period 2012–2024. Point and interval predictions (with a 95% confidence level) were constructed for the mean annual volume of harvested grapes in the country. The explicit forms of trend models were identified, and forecasts were made for the predicted grape harvest volumes in the coming years. Using the Durbin–Watson statistical test, it was established that the average volume of harvested grapes in Uzbekistan exhibits autocorrelation dependence.  

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