An agroclimatic assessment of the conditions governing winter wheat yield formation was conducted in the central Aral Sea region, using Nukus District of the Republic of Karakalpakstan as a representative area, for the 2024 growing season. Thermal and water regimes, atmospheric precipitation, hydrothermal conditions, reference evapotranspiration (ET₀), atmospheric water deficit, soil-moisture dynamics, and their relationship with the productivity of winter wheat cultivar Utkir were evaluated. Agroclimatic indicators were derived from NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) data for the study coordinates of 42.62° N and 59.48° E.
The results demonstrated that 2024 was characterized by high thermal availability combined with a pronounced atmospheric moisture deficit. Annual precipitation was only 130.25 mm, of which 72.17 mm occurred from April to October. The accumulated temperature above 10 °C during this period reached 4828.61 °C. The Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) was 0.149, indicating extremely dry conditions. Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) during April–October reached 1498.73 mm, whereas the calculated difference between ET₀ and precipitation was 1426.56 mm. Soil-moisture content in the surface layer declined from 0.40 in April–May to 0.18 in August and reached a minimum of 0.15 in September.
Despite the pronounced imbalance between thermal resources and atmospheric moisture, the recorded yield of winter wheat cultivar Utkir was 69.9 c ha⁻¹. The findings indicate that under Aral Sea conditions, water availability and high atmospheric evaporative demand, rather than insufficient thermal resources, represent the principal climatic constraints on winter wheat productivity. Maintaining high crop productivity under these conditions therefore depends strongly on effective water-regime management combined with adaptive agronomic practices.